The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that House Republicans' legislation repeal and replace much of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will reduce federal deficits by $337 billion and increase the number of uninsured by 24 million -- for a total of 52 million uninsured people -- by 2026.
While most of the projected coverage losses are in the individual market and under Medicaid, CBO projects that fewer people -- 2 million in 2020 and 7 million in 2026 – would enroll in employer coverage under the bill as a result of eliminating individual and employer mandate penalties while making tax credits available to a wider range of people (e.g., people with higher incomes). The GOP bill’s tax credits would only be available if an individual does not have an offer of health coverage from their employer or elsewhere. While these changes might cause some employers to offer coverage to fewer employees, CBO said employers may adapt slowly to the legislation given the uncertainties.
The projected coverage losses are heightening concerns by moderate Republicans - particularly in the Senate - about the House bill, while conservatives are demanding changes that could further increase the number of uninsured. Congressional GOP leaders and President Trump are discussing potential revisions to the bill ahead of a House vote that could happen within weeks, and the CBO is expected to issue new projections as the legislation changes.